Public K-12 Graded Enrollment

California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County — 2025 Series

October 2025

• California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment Projections Table, 2025 Series
• DRU Data Hub – Enrollment Projections for Counties and Districts

Highlights

State Enrollment

California experienced the 8th consecutive decrease in total Public K-12 Enrollment in the 2024-25 school year (-31,500 students), enrolling 5,806,200 students. Over the next ten years, if current trends in fertility and migration hold, a further decline of 586,500 in total enrollment is projected, resulting in total enrollment of 5,219,700 by 2034-35.

County Enrollment

The largest increase in county enrollment across the projection period is expected in Placer County, which will gain 7,000 students between 2024-25 and 2034-35. The biggest decline in enrollment is expected in Los Angeles County, which will fall by 230,400 students by the end of the 10-year projection. Overall, 14 counties will have increased public K-12 enrollment by 2034-35.

High School Graduates

Graduates increased slightly (+14,700 graduates) in 2023-24 to 454,800 but are projected to decline to 424,200 in 2026-27, holding around that level until 2033-34, before falling to 412,300 in 2034-35. The largest increase in graduates is expected in Sacramento County, which will produce 1,650 more graduates by the end of the projection. Overall, 16 counties will see an increase in the number of high school graduates by 2034-35.

Extended Projection

The 2025 Series includes an extended projection beyond the standard 10 years of data. Please note that these projections are a continuation of the Grade Progression Ratios used for the original projection, therefore they do not reflect any changes in assumptions after the initial 10-year period.

Data Sources

Enrollment data used to produce this report was obtained from the California Department of Education. Actual births were obtained from the California Department of Public Health while projected births were produced by the Demographic Research Unit.

Methodology

Enrollment projections are developed using a grade progression ratio (GPR), cohort-survival, projection model to project enrollment in transitional kindergarten through twelfth grade as well as high school graduates. The GPR is the result of dividing the enrollment in one grade level by the enrollment in one lower grade from the prior year. The GPR represents the proportion of students expected to progress from one grade to the next. The most likely progression model is chosen based upon analysis of historical trends and incorporating the migration trends and demographic characteristics of each county. Entering cohorts of transitional kindergartners, kindergarteners, and first graders are projected using actual and projected births. The best fitting progression ratios are chosen independently for the projection of each grade including high school graduates. The state total by grade is the result of the summation of the projections by grade at the county level.

User Notes

Changes to the kindergarten age of admission impact elementary enrollment patterns making the 2025 series inconsistent with projections series produced prior to the 2010 series. The 2025 series features transitional kindergarten as a separate grade, reflecting the change made by CDE starting with the 2023-24 enrollment dataset. The 2025 series also incorporates changes in kindergarten enrollment due to the expansion of transitional kindergarten to cover all 4-year-olds by 2025-26.

Historical Data has been updated to mirror California Department of Education datasets, prior series omitted ungraded enrollment, California Special Schools and California Youth Authority programs.

Suggested Citation

State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2025 Series. Sacramento, California, October 2025.