California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County — 2022 Series
September 2022
- California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment Projections Table, 2022 Series
Highlights
State Enrollment
California experienced the 5th consecutive decrease in total Public K-12 Enrollment in the 2021-22 school year (-110,000 students), enrolling 5,892,000 students. Over the next ten years, if current trends in fertility and migration hold, a further decline of 524,000 in total enrollment is projected, resulting in total enrollment of 5,368,000 by 2030-31.
County Enrollment
California experienced the 5th consecutive decrease in total Public K-12 Enrollment in the 2021-22 school year (-110,000 students), enrolling 5,892,000 students. Over the next ten years, if current trends in fertility and migration hold, a further decline of 524,000 in total enrollment is projected, resulting in total enrollment of 5,368,000 by 2030-31.
High School Graduates
Graduates are expected to increase to a projected peak of 442,500 in 2023-24 after which they decline through the end of the projection period. The largest increase in graduates is expected in Kern County, which will add 1,300 graduates by the end of the projection. Overall, 15 counties will see an increase in the number of high school graduates by 2031-32.
Data Sources
Enrollment data used to produce this report were obtained from the California Department of Education. Actual births were obtained from the California Department of Public Health while projected births were produced by the Demographic Research Unit.
Methodology
Enrollment projections are developed using a grade progression ratio (GPR), cohort-survival, projection model to project enrollment in kindergarten through twelfth grade and high school graduates. The GPR is the result of dividing the enrollment in one grade level by the enrollment in one lower grade from the prior year. The GPR represents the proportion of students expected to progress from one grade to the next. The most likely progression model is chosen based upon analysis of historical trends and incorporating the migration trends and demographic characteristics of each county. Entering cohorts of kindergartners and first graders are projected using actual and projected births. The best fitting progression ratios are chosen independently for the projection of each grade including high school graduates. The state total by grade is the result of the summation of the projections by grade at the county level.
User Notes
Changes to the kindergarten age of admission impact elementary enrollment patterns making the 2022 series inconsistent with projections series produced prior to the 2010 series. Kindergarten enrollment includes students enrolled in transitional kindergarten. The 2022 series incorporates changes in Kindergarten enrollment due to the expansion of transitional Kindergarten to cover all 4 year olds by 2025-26.
Historical Data (1974-75 to 2021-22) has been updated to mirror California Department of Education data sets, prior series omitted ungraded as well as California Special Schools and California Youth Authority programs.
Suggested Citation
State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2022 Series. Sacramento, California, September 2022.