California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County — 2024 Series
November 2024
- California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment Projections Table, 2024 Series
- DRU Data Hub – Enrollment Projections by District
Highlights
State Enrollment
California experienced the 7th consecutive decrease in total Public K-12 Enrollment in the 2023-24 school year (-14,900 students), enrolling 5,837,700 students. Over the next ten years, if current trends in fertility and migration hold, a further decline of 585,800 in total enrollment is projected, resulting in total enrollment of 5,251,900 by 2033-34.
County Enrollment
The largest increase in county enrollment across the projection period is expected in Placer County, which will gain 6,500 students between 2023-24 and 2033-34. The biggest decline in enrollment is expected in Los Angeles County, which will fall by 242,800 students by the end of the 10-year projection. Overall, 14 counties will have increased public K-12 enrollment by 2033-34.
High School Graduates
Graduates declined slightly (-14,400 graduates) in 2022-23 to 440,100 and is projected to remain above 431,000 through 2025-26, before falling to 402,600 by the end of the 10-year projection. The largest increase in graduates is expected in Placer County, which will increase by nearly 800 graduates by the end of the 10-year projection. Overall, 18 counties will see an increase in the number of high school graduates by 2033-34.
Extended Projection
New with the 2023 Series is an extended projection beyond the standard 10 years of data. Please note that these projections are a continuation of the Grade Progression Ratios used for the original projection, therefore they do not reflect any changes in assumptions after the initial 10-year period.
Data Sources
Enrollment data used to produce this report was obtained from the California Department of Education. Actual births were obtained from the California Department of Public Health while projected births were produced by the Demographic Research Unit.
Methodology
Enrollment projections are developed using a grade progression ratio (GPR), cohort-survival, projection model to project enrollment in kindergarten through twelfth grade and high school graduates. The GPR is the result of dividing the enrollment in one grade level by the enrollment in one lower grade from the prior year. The GPR represents the proportion of students expected to progress from one grade to the next. The most likely progression model is chosen based upon analysis of historical trends and incorporating the migration trends and demographic characteristics of each county. Entering cohorts of kindergartners (including transitional kindergarteners) and first graders are projected using actual and projected births. The best fitting progression ratios are chosen independently for the projection of each grade including high school graduates. The state total by grade is the result of the summation of the projections by grade at the county level.
User Notes
Changes to the kindergarten age of admission impact elementary enrollment patterns making the 2024 series inconsistent with projections series produced prior to the 2010 series. The 2024 series now features transitional kindergarten as a separate grade, reflecting the change made by CDE starting with the 2023-24 enrollment dataset. The 2024 series also incorporates changes in kindergarten enrollment due to the expansion of transitional Kindergarten to cover all 4-year-olds by 2025-26.
Historical Data has been updated to mirror California Department of Education data sets, prior series omitted ungraded enrollment, California Special Schools and California Youth Authority programs.
Suggested Citation
State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2024 Series. Sacramento, California, November 2024.