Projections

Projections of population with components of change, births, and public school enrollment at the state and county level produced by the Demographic Research Unit.

Population Projections (Baseline 2019)

• Methodology
• Release Notes:
  • Vintage 2020 (2021.7.14):  update to fix a bug in the age-distribution by race/ethnicity; does not change population totals by year, county, race/ethnicity; highest age now 110+.
  • Vintage 2020 (2021.4.23):  update to fix age-distribution in P3 file; population totals do not change.
  • Vintage 2020 (2021.3.05):  update to include latest July 1 estimates released December 2020.
  • Vintage 2019 (2020.12.11):  file structure expanded and documentation released; data unchanged.
  • Vintage 2019 (2020.1.10):  initial public data release.

P-1: State Population Projections (2010-2060):

• P-1A Total Population for California
• P-1B Total Population by Individual Year of Age
• P-1C Total Population by Sex and 5-Year Age Group
• Total Population by Race/Ethnicity:
  • P-1D Total Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Race
  • P-1E Hispanic by Race – Expanded

P-2: County Population Projections (2010-2060):

• P-2A Total Population for California and Counties
• P-2B County Population by Age
• P-2C County Population by Sex and Age Group
• P-2D County Population by Total Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Race

P-3: Complete State and County Projections Dataset:

• Complete P-3 Race/Ethnicity and Sex by Age for California and Counties, Excel Compatible
  • California and Counties
• Complete P-3 File Comma-Delimited, Database-Ready Format – comma-delimited dataset and data dictionary (compressed with zip). This is a large file that will NOT open successfully in Microsoft Excel.
• Data Dictionary – text containing codes and correspondence tables

Components of Change:

• Report P-CC: Projected Total Population and Components of Change, 2010-2060

Birth Projections

• P-Births: Historical and Projected Fertility Rates and Births, Calendar Year 1990-2040

Household Projections for California Counties

• P-4: State and County Projected Households, Household Population, and Persons per Household 2020-2030

Education Projections

• Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County – 2021 Series

Comments, suggestions, or questions? Please email ficalpop@dof.ca.gov.