Projections

Projections of population with components of change, births, and public school enrollment at the state and county level produced by the Demographic Research Unit (DRU).

Interim Projections Series

DRU plans to release an interim projection series informed by Census 2020 data in early 2023. The series will respond to interest from DRU partners and other organizations.The development of the interim series is prompted by the delay in the Census Bureau’s scheduled release of the Census 2020 Demographic and Housing Characteristics (DHC) file to May 2023. That file will provide a new baseline for a complete DRU projection series tentatively planned for release in early 2024.

The interim series will reflect the July 1, 2022 state and county population estimates published in December 2022 and will be based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s blended base – a combination of Census 2020 PL94, 2020 Demographic Analysis, and the Bureau’s Vintage 2020 estimates. While single-year of age detail is planned for the interim projection series, age groupings may be necessary pending further analysis.

Population Projections (Baseline 2019)

• Methodology
• Release Notes:
  • Vintage 2020 (2021.7.14): update to fix a bug in the age-distribution by race/ethnicity; does not change population totals by year, county, race/ethnicity; highest age now 110+.
  • Vintage 2020 (2021.4.23): update to fix age-distribution in P3 file; population totals do not change.
  • Vintage 2020 (2021.3.05): update to include latest July 1 estimates released December 2020.
  • Vintage 2019 (2020.12.11): file structure expanded and documentation released; data unchanged.
  • Vintage 2019 (2020.1.10): initial public data release.

P-1: State Population Projections (2010-2060)

• P-1A Total Population for California 
• P-1B Total Population by Individual Year of Age
• P-1C Total Population by Sex and 5-Year Age Group
• Total Population by Race/Ethnicity:
  • P-1D Total Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Race
  • P-1E Hispanic by Race – Expanded

• P-2A Total Population for California and Counties
• P-2B County Population by Age
• P-2C County Population by Sex and Age Group
• P-2D County Population by Total Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Race

P-3: Complete State and County Projections Dataset:

• Complete P-3 Race/Ethnicity and Sex by Age for California and Counties, Excel Compatible
  • California and Counties
• Complete P-3 File Comma-Delimited, Database-Ready Format – comma-delimited dataset and data dictionary (compressed with zip). This is a large file that will NOT open successfully in Microsoft Excel.
• Data Dictionary – text containing codes and correspondence tables

Components of Change:

• Report P-CC: Projected Total Population and Components of Change, 2010-2060

Birth Projections

• P-Births: Historical and Projected Fertility Rates and Births, Calendar Year 1990-2040

Household Projections for California Counties

• P-4: State and County Projected Households, Household Population, and Persons per Household 2020-2030 

Education Projections

• Public K-12 Graded Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County – 2022 Series

Comments, suggestions, or questions? Please email ficalpop@dof.ca.gov.